From the co-author of Big Data Science in Finance (Wiley, 2021)
May 12, 2021AbleMarkets Institutional Activity Predicts 5-, 10-, 20 and 60-Day Beta
Abstract: Beta is commonly used in portfolio management, hedging and other risk management, options trading and more. In this paper, we show that market-microstructure derived identification of institutional flows are highly predictive of future beta realizations computed out-of-sample over 5-, 10, 20- and even 60-days ahead. We present the results of the predictability analysis along with a sample use case: a successful market-neutral strategy utilizing the analysis. We find that AbleMarkets institutional activity, both buy and sell, the difference in AbleMarkets Aggressive HFT activity and the security in-sample return are highly predictive of future beta realizations. Prior betas are not predictive of future betas in most cases. The sample risk-neutral portfolio built with AbleMarkets Institutional Activity index and AbleMarkets Aggressive HFT index generates over 50% per annum in all market conditions, including the COVID crash.
May 25, 2021Case Study: How Daily Flows Impact EUR/USD Prices
Abstract Institutional and Aggressive HFT flows are highly predictive of impending price changes across a range of financial instruments. This study shows the flow predictability of EUR/USD foreign exchange currency pair prices over the last five years. As the study shows:
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