What Do "In-The-Know" Investors Do During This Morning's Rally in the U.S. Markets?

Post date: 2023-03-20 15:00:46 GMT

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The U.S. markets appear to be rallying this morning. AbleMarkets looks deeper into who is buying and selling the markets today. From our analysis, we see that the "in-the-know" or "informed" investors are selling the markets this morning. In academic literature, the informed investors are those who spend considerable amount of money on research, such as institutions like pension funds and hedge funds and HFTs. Institutional investors, in particular, often place trades as large as US Billion, significantly moving the markets. They strategically break large orders into small pieces to avoid being detected in the markets, yet AbleMarkets reconstructs their flow, thanks to our groundbreaking Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology. In this brief, we examine potential reasons for the observed activity.

On Tuesday, March 21, 2023, at 10 AM ET, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release the figures for the Existing Home Sales. While the economists predict that the numbers will be highly upbeat, the institutional investors just may know better!

On Wednesday, March 22, 2023, at 10:30 AM ET, the U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to release the Crude Oil Inventories figures that are widely expected to decrease by about a half from the previous figures. This may result in a drastic uptick in the gas prices and find its way into the upcoming inflation figures.

Also on Wednesday, March 22, at 14:00 PM ET, the U.S. Fed will release its latest interest rate decision. It is expected that the Fed will raise rates by another 0.25% to 5%, potentially having a negative impact on the economy.

On Thursday, March 23, 2023, at 8:30 AM ET, we will be watching for the Initial Jobless Claims figures, which many economists expect will show an uptick. When Initial Jobless Claims increase, it can indicate a weakening of the economy and a rise in unemployment. Also on Thursday, at 10 AM ET, another slate of bad news is expected to be released: the sales of new homes are expected to decline, signaling potentially bad news for the construction industry.

Finally, on Friday, March 24, 2023, at 8:30 AM ET, we expect to hear Core Durable Goods Orders that are also expected to decline. Core Durable Goods Orders measure the total value of new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for durable goods, excluding defense and transportation items. When Core Durable Goods Orders decline, it can indicate a weakening of the economy as businesses and consumers reduce their spending on big-ticket items.

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